Rethinking Predictability

At its core, traditional project management assumes that with proper planning, control, and execution, future project outcomes can be predicted.

This assumption is embedded in methodologies like Waterfall, and even to an extent in agile systems through iterative planning and metrics. The belief in predictability underpins fundamental practices such as forecasting, risk management, budgeting, and scheduling - it is, in fact, the epistemological foundation of the discipline.

However, in today’s VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) world, this assumption is fundamentally under siege. In such an environment, plans rapidly become obsolete, risks emerge unpredictably, and decision-making shifts from a reliance on prediction to an emphasis on resilience and adaptation. Modern approaches like agile, lean startup thinking, and real-time portfolio management have arisen as responses to this new reality, attempting to navigate a landscape where the future resists certainty.

Here lies the paradox: even in a VUCA world, the principle of causality - the idea that every effect has a cause - remains intact. It is a metaphysical constant. Actions still have consequences; inputs still shape outputs. Causality does not require predictability, but it does demand coherence. We may not be able to foresee an outcome, but once it occurs, we can, at least in principle, trace it back to its causes.

This reveals a critical insight: predictability is a practical simplification of causality, not its synonym. While VUCA conditions undermine our ability to predict project outcomes, they do not negate the fact that those outcomes emerge from causes - even if those causes are too complex, indirect, or hidden for us to model accurately.

Therefore, perhaps it's time we shift from treating “predictability” as a foundational axiom to embracing “navigability through causal understanding” as our compass. Project management in the VUCA age must evolve: it must become less about forecasting the future and more about detecting early signals, understanding dynamic systems, and responding to causal patterns in real time.

In this light, while predictability may no longer be a reliable guide, causality remains a deeper, if more elusive, foundation - one that can still support effective project management, even in a turbulent and uncertain world.

Dezső Dudás, Msc, PMP®, CSPO®

Senior project manager